Hottest Market in San Jose EVERGREEN

    

EVERGREEN      

                    

            Publisher SANDY KAY   at sandy@sandykayhomes.com       

Date    9/21/2011    Issue 1

Supply decreases as demand grows for affordable homes                        in high school Score areas

This year there have been 141 sales in the 95148 area code where the current elementary schools:  Norwood  (API score 887) /Carolyn Clarke (API score 955  /Millbrook (API score 873) have high and increasing  aptitude performance indexes.  Most of the home  discussed in this newsletter are in the Quimby Oak middle school district which has a score of 871 up from 828 in 2010 and Evergreen High (838 API score). Compared to Almaden, Cupertino, Saratoga /Los Gatos and farther north on the Peninsula, prices are at a bargain. 95148 and 95135 are the only zip codes on the south Peninsula where all three schools have high school scores.  Prices are likely to start moving upwards.

Sale prices ranged from the mid 200’s which were predominantly REOs to $1080000  (also an REO or bank owned property). Sixty three homes were priced over $550000 and the high end of this range was predominantly REOs or short sales. Homes between 600and 840K were predominantly regular sales  in better condition then the short sales.

The highest prices were in the newer part (<15 years old) of the Evergreen area south of Quimby and North of Aborn.  Between 800 and 900K there were often several offers or very quick sales as the year has progressed. The market is definitely hot and getting hotter as there is almost no inventory remaining in the area.  Older homes (>15 years ) in the area closest to Murillo sold for prices well over 650K and with multiple offers if the homes were larger and remodeled.  Typically original homes did not sell as well compared to the 2007 time frame where everything sold.

There were 78 homes that sold below 550K and they were spread fairly evenly between the areas east and west of White Rd. Only one home sold in this price range east of Ruby. The average home size was 1481 sq ft.

Out of this group 19 were bank owned property, 33 short sales and 25 regular sales.  Almost all the homes that sold below 440K were short sales or REOs.

2010 to 2011

In 2010 there were 238 homes sold in the same area compared to the 141 homes sold in 2011. The 16 homes which sold for over 1 million were mostly regular sales and the highest priced home was $1285000 down from the $1449000 asking price. This home was on the market for just over a year. In reality the price difference of the high end sale was based on recognition of the depth of the economic status of the nation combined with lack of inventory in 2011.  Over 700K, few homes in 2010 were short sales as compared to 2011 as the economy affects the mid price range sector.

Consistently many of the sales below 550K were in fact short sales or REOs in 2010. At 122 homes, the number sold in the lower price ranges almost matched the number sold all together in Evergreen in 2011. They were about 1/3 short sales, 1/3 REOs and 1/3 regular sales which is actually better than the county average of 50% short sales and bank owned sales and 50% regular sales according to Chicago Title’s statistics. This reflects the general higher quality of the Evergreen neighborhood discussed.  In the lowest price range most sales were bank owned or short sales.

Current Prospects

There are 36 homes on the market now in this zip code and 15 of these are over $680000.  Only one of these homes is bank owned which may be a reflection of the HAMP/HAFA programs and facilitated and stream lined short sale processes adopted by the banks.

Fifty three homes are still in escrow pending sale and they are almost all short sales which may or may not close and actually sell. These are ones to now start watching closely as the market inventory tightens to a poor supply.

This newsletter is my summary of the sales in Evergreen 95148 and the accuracy is taken from the real estate multiple listing service and some numbers are rounded for communication purposes. For information on homes in this area please contact me through my email or website:

Sandy@sandykayhomes.com or 408 202 0608. I am always happy to discuss the area and have successfully closed 4 sales in 95148 since the beginning of the year ; two short sales at the million dollar level, one REO and one regular sale for my buyers and sellers. I am constantly following the market in Evergreen and hope to provide useful information to future buyers and sellers.

CALL SANDY KAY   408 202 0608
Fireside Realty

2111 Lincoln Ave San Jose 95125

Mortgage Relief or More Mess?

There has been a lot of talk about the new $20 billion bail out to address  robo-signing  and bank practices of the years before the market fell out from under us.  This most recently off the press:


Foreclosure Settlement Imminent Bank Sources Say


Foreclosure Settlement Imminent Bank Sources Say

Will we be able to make a deal with the banks regarding their errors in making loans that could not be paid?  Banks are not talking, but it is likely that the money will be caught up in a bureacratic nightmare. The thought has been that this money would provide mortgage relief to struggling homeowners by allowing more relaxed loan modification  for people who need mortgage relief because their homes are underwater (they owe more than the home is worth.)
Only problem is case in point: someone lost their job - they would qualify for a loan modification -- that is what might be considered a hardship. In fact the program then denies the loan modification if the individual got their job back? What is wrong with that picture? I would think that's exactly the type of person who would need mortgage relief because they actually can and have the ability to reinstate their status and payments if they are given some kind of help. The individual is still at risk despite the systems approach to the problem.
In a seminar with Wells Fargo/Wachovia recently the reps stated that they are taking each individual on a personal basis and the talk was promising. They even mentioned 90 day lates would be considered but definitely the time to approach the bank would be before a late payment is made. HAMP/HAFA ruling and law states that you must receive a written denial for a loan modification from the bank before your home can be foreclosed. After foreclosure the ability to reinstate seems likely to be an expensive and near impossible prospect for a displaced homeowner or one that is going that way.

So what problems are homeowners still facing?
The difficulty in making their payments: health issues, lost jobs, balloon payments coming due and the past inappropriate lending practices (they never should have gotten the home in the first place), pulled cash out and overspeculated are still in place. No one thinks the goose with the golden egg has flown in.

What about the people who are underwater with two loans where they took money out and speculated on a business  or maybe a motor boat and vacation. Are these cases separate or lumped together? After all the motor boat isn't worth what they bought if for, the vacation money is spent and the business went under. Should both homeowners be rewarded for bad business planning?  SB 458 -- the new law that says that banks can not go after the borrower for the principal of the second loan after they grant a short sale. That stopped a short sale I had in progress with Chase bank for about a month costing my buyers very ethical loan agent several thousand dollars to extend the loan lock. It was a hiccup that we got through and the bank allowed the short sale to proceed. It was a win win situation where family helped relocate the seller and the buyers are happy with their new home but it took experience and persistence.  But what about the seller's future taxes? It is possible that the seller will see tax bills for the second she took out for her business since the loan WAS a refinanced, recourse loan.
Last there is discussion of reversing the tax benefits for mortgage interest. For investment homes its likely a  change is necessary to improve our economic portfolio. For primary home owners struggling to make payments it spells disaster.
 One thing I am sure -- its not fair. Ok well is life ever fair? Probably not but what is the bail out really about that's what I want to know. Is it possible that it will just move forward denial of loan modifcations and allow the banks to more rapidly repossess the homes?

 Inquiring minds want to know. Stay tuned for future discussions on resolution to these problems.