Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Sales go on and on and on!

I remember the good old days when you could take a client out and find a home that you like and make an offer and if everyone was on the same page, the client could move in within a month or so. No more. sales go on and on and on since most of them are bank sales. The banks are not at all interested in contract timelimes or contingencies. Negotiations may take months or just disappear into the void where someone (who knows who) is evaluating a good offer. No wonder buyers walk and move on to other prospects in frustration.  Appraisals have to be renewed every three months and should there be a compliant seller they have to renew their information to the bank every 60 days or so.

So 2010 has been interesting. I have seen properties where sellers have been living in bank owned homes a year after the bank has owned the property and no one has evicted them. The sellers are still trying to sell the home and the sellers agent is representing the seller!  I showed a home the other day and the seller informed me that they were planning to take everything in the house that wasn't nailed down when they leave and a lot of things that were nailed down. Another seller I spoke to has no where to go and no plans and my buyers loan funds in two weeks.

Most of my day is spent on hold with the bank waiting to hear from someone who doesn't have an answer!

All the forecasts say the economy is improving and certainly folks spent this Christmas -- well its no wonder, they aren't paying mortgages, rent and some of them are collecting rents on properties where they are in default. Crazy world. The reality though is that insurance, health costs, commodity prices and gas prices are going up. So what did Betty davis say; "fasten your seat belts, we are in for a bumpy ride."  The foreclosures are by no means over. I ran the loan to value ratio in an upscale townhome complex not that long ago and guess what -- one in four people had equity in their property. So if anyone there loses a job or changes their financial situation there are predicted foreclosures. 

Plus there is my conscience. It's no fun to work with people that are having huge financial problems. Consequently, I have found just about every legal way to help sellers in default and will continue to help with financing counseling and problem solving and trouble shooting loan modifications. Most people need support and gradually get educated on the changes to their financial picture so that they can move forward with life in 2011.  Nonetheless I am very happy that we have legal support at my office because the problem solving is pretty tricky and I want expert second opinions at my fingertips.

Sandy Kay

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Home Loans: Being upside down and staying afloat

Well as the ink on my last blog dries on the virtual page, I got this note and article from my friend Carl Reuter:

Sandy:
I wanted to thank you. I was about to default on my loan when I found out how underwater I was on my place and you were the one coaching me not to miss payments and to look at other options. That caused me to do a lot of research and to go up to bat with my lender and get a serious principle reduction and I managed to get refi'd through another lender. I ended up writing a few short articles on the process in hopes it may help others to get out from under similar debts.
Thanks again, Carl

I share the following in hopes it may help fellow homeowners in crisis.
Myself, along with many others in America are “upside down” or “underwater” on their homes. I found I’d be lucky to get half of what I’d paid for it and I found the bank wouldn’t give me a re-finance to get out from under my 5 year fixed interest only loan. With the economic slowdown my income had decreased dramatically as well. I started to research my options as it didn’t make sense to keep paying for a home I owed $450k on that was worth less than $300k.
A little research taught me that 95% of the folks that go to their mortgage company for a “loan modification” end up defaulting on the loan. If one gets behind in payments the bank is happy to add all those costs onto the back end of the loan and may lower the payment amount and possibly reduce the interest rate but it will cost you and they will not forgive any of the principle. You end up with an even bigger loan! The common misconception is that the lender won’t even talk over options unless you’re already behind in payments. At that point you are faced with foreclosure, which wrecks your credit for 7-10 years or you could “short sale” the home for less than fair market value which would only ding your credit for 2 years. I found the option by not defaulting. I Googled the topic and was able to untangle myths from facts and discovered the “Short payoff re-fi”, also called a “short re-fi” or “short payoff”.
If you qualify, you can negotiate your loan down and still keep your house. Here’s how it works; the homeowner secures a loan elsewhere, essentially a re-fi, but for slightly less than the current market value of the home and they or a third party loan mod specialist presents that offer to their original lender and convinces that bank to accept a lesser payoff, making it clear that the borrower will have to short sale the home or default on the loan if the offer is refused due to financial hardship. The short payoff re-fi means a lesser loss for the bank since the home refinances for about the price of the future short sale and eliminates the costs of foreclosure. As more banks like BofA and Citibank, are seeing the merits of these types of payoff, they are allowing it. You may find a list of banks online. I’ve been dealing with Citibank but and found some of the folks in their short sale department didn’t have a clue about the new short refi program. I went to my mortgage broker and had to educate him as well. Besides being at a lot better interest rate, my monthly payments will drop by over a grand. The whole process took 6-8 weeks. Citibank got a “broker price opinion” of the property value, their appraisal, and negotiated my payoff based on that value.

Before you get too excited here’s the catch; you have to be able to qualify for a FHA loan which is the only one approved for short payoffs, still have good credit, no missed payments, only one loan on the property and prove some financial hardship. It also helps if the original loan is owned by the bank rather than a third party investor. I believe that is called a portfolio loan and it simplifies the process because the bank doesn’t have to get approval from investors.

I originally Googled for “short payoff refi” and found links to some companies that will do all the legwork for around $3000. It’s illegal in California for them to take any money from you till escrow closes so they basically work for free, hoping all the pieces will fit together and get paid at the end. This unfortunately means they may not work as hard on these types of loans and in my case I got discouraged at the slow responses I got and decided to do the legwork myself. Its taken a lot of phone calls and internet research to get the facts straight. I can see why more people don’t know about these options.

None of us signed up for home loans thinking we would one day face losing our homes or be forced to renegotiate the amount we owed just to keep the home. For many of us offering the bank less is the only option and before we shed a tear over their loss, go see Michael Moore’s newest movie, Capitalism- A Love Story. I am no expert on any of this so please don’t seek me out for advice. I encourage you to do your own research, tell everyone you know that’s in this situation and be persistent. Go to your mortgage broker and educate him or her, get the new loan, pay your old loan off for what the house is really worth and don’t forget to get your taxes reassessed for the new value of the home. Good luck.

Carl Reuter is a local renewable energy contractor and long time resident of Santa Cruz that loves living here even though it’s a costly place to call home.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

My Life Raft for the American Economy

Since I’m on the subject of exploding oaks, I might as well start discussing the American economy. Last year we were 11.7 trillion dollars in debt. Where are we now? Going up -- 13.53 million in debt. That is a scary number. The question I have to ask myself is where is the money going to come from to replace that debt?

Lets look at a couple of facts. What hasn’t changed? The unemployment rate and the foreclosure rate in the last year haven’t changed. About 9.6 % of Americans are unemployed and about 5% of homes are in some point of foreclosure. That hasn’t changed but the American debt has. Why?

It’s not that the government isn’t trying. First they created more jobs so now one in six Americans work for the federal government. Wait – that doesn’t seem right either. Clearly if the government is going into MORE debt how are they going to keep paying these workers? I doubt anyone anywhere across the sectors is feeling super confident about the sustainability of their jobs these days particularly if you just listen to the media.

Typically the government buys mortgage backed securities and counts on the profit as the debt is repaid or sold. As property values decrease and people remain in their homes and just stop paying the mortgages, the liquid value of those assets diminish adding to the federal debt. Hence the Federal Reform Act with the programs to prop up the unpaid mortgage debt. The feds said “we will give you the opportunity to stay in your home by lowering your interest rate, extending the length of your mortgage or paying you to leave if everything else has failed.” The bonus is at no cost to your credit. The reality however was simple – almost no one benefited from these programs and the money for them is all but used up. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are close to bankruptcy.

Traditionally the deficit in the treasury is returned through taxation but no one wants that, least of all any guy who wants to be reelected. The guy who is barely making his mortgage anyway doesn’t want that either or he might now able to pay his mortgage. No equity, working harder, still able to pay a mortgage on a house that they have little confidence will be valued what it was in 2007? They are not going to vote for the guy that says their taxes are going up so the administration regardless of bull or bear avoids that tactic.

It was actually pretty exciting to cold call a prospective client and hear an excited voice: I reduced my mortgage and got to stay in my house. That was the exception. My broker explains it best. You’ve got three choices. “You can stare out into the ocean and claim it’s not an iceberg, you can rearrange the chairs on the titanic or you can start building a life raft.” I’m of the unsinkable Molly Brown character. I’m hammering as fast as I can. So when I too hit the wall of diminishing income relative to the number of houses that I own I took a big step back. I cried, denied and then went to work. The secret is time, the need for change and the ability to incrementally change the reality we live in. The Zen Buddhists say that you should do everything slowly; less stress and more success. The fear and discomfort we want to believe by reading the newspapers is probably greater than the reality. So I’m really going out on a limb here and I predict that overall the market is actually going to get better not worse and I’m going to give you the reasons.

Now I can’t take credit for everything that I have said. What spawned this conversation is a Silicon Valley Association of Realtors breakfast meeting yesterday where I got some of the statistical facts I just presented. Rick Soukoulis from the Loan Source in San Jose gave the talk. He really made me sit forward when he put the same graph on the screen that I have been carrying around in my pocket since I came back to selling real estate a few months ago.


It’s an ugly picture really. What it says is we are going into three years of more failures and foreclosures due to the option arm loans. I would have to say that the investors are still holding pretty tight to their money on that basis. Is it all true? Well not across the sectors. The entry level housing is being driven pretty hard by three things; the American dream to own a home, the strength of the FHA programs and the up and coming “echo boomers” that don’t have bad mortgages and have the youth and health to work hard and afford their homes. If you look at the entry level housing, a lot of it is in escrow.

You talk to the stock market analysts and they will tell you what you are looking at when you look at this double hump – it’s called a “shoulder.” Long term it doesn’t mean anything. Blow it up over time and it means that the market is going to trade sideways for awhile and then reverse and come back. Good homes will hold their value. Bad homes won’t.

So what was Rick selling yesterday? He was selling private money. The Loan Source is a mortgage banker and they can do in house appraisals and have their own money to fund a loan. That can be a beautiful thing. “That can speed up a transaction,” he said. Typical mortgage brokers package your loan and might send it to Nebraska to get you the best rate, but if Nebraska denies the loan you might not get the loan at all. One of the government responses to the nasty sort of lending practices that we saw in recent years was to create a big pool of appraisers and deny a mortgage broker the right to use the guy with whom he had built a relationship of trust. It also wiped out the guys that were juggling numbers to make a property appraise that really wasn’t worth that value. The problem is if the “pool” appraiser has a lot of sales nearby then it’s easy but if he’s not from the area and really doesn’t understand local value then it might be as wrong an evaluation as before or worse. The other thing the government did was take away the portability of loans meaning that if the broker packages the loan and it’s denied, he might not be able to package it again. Sale fails. Wait a minute – the reason the mortgage broker was sending it to Nebraska in the first place was to get you the lowest interest rate possible. Take that away and it means a perfectly good credit worthy buyer may have to get a higher interest rate. That’s just plain wrong. Ultimately it still comes down to how much does the guy know that’s working on your loan.

Google the “Center for American Progress” and you’ll be getting info from some of the brightest eggheads in the numbers game. They are talking a lot about “privatization.” With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac becoming Tom, Dick and Harry the eggheads are out there looking for money. Duh. The investors are just waiting to buy property at 30 cents on the dollar and resell to us at 75 cents on the dollar. Nothing really changes except government restrictions. The feds say each entity that originates a loan, bank or other, will get “rating” based on the institution’s history, stability and performance. Kind of like an API score for schools. The government has put out the Moody’s report to rate a lender. The better the rating, the more likely you are to go to that entity. The government is trying to level the playing field by categorizing it, organizing it and trying to manage it. Rick says the past where 70% of loan origination comes from mortgage brokers is over and 80% of them will go out of business.

Only thing is I have a problem with numbers. It’s not because I can’t do them - I have an advanced epidemiology and statistics degree. Ok, so I made a film about risk analysis rather than learn my chi squared analysis by heart. I just wasn’t the type to sleep in math classes behind people that had triangular heads at 8 am. I did get one thing out of that year though. You can manipulate numbers a lot and a rating is one number. Nothing should be determined based on one number. I also have loyalty and no one is going to talk me out of my own mortgage broker that quickly by saying he is a dying breed.


A lender has to know how to make a loan work. Meet Terry Gordon, president of First Funding, in Campbell. He works in an unassuming building on Bascom Ave. When you walk through the front door and meet Melody, Terry’s congenial and knowledgeable wife and partner, you already feel at ease. Then you go to Terry’s office. Enter the Command Center. There is nothing in this room that feels like the past – you have entered the space age. Terry is a good sized man with a chair that swivels smoothly in the center of an armada of computers. Terry is the spreadsheet wizard. Tell him your story and in a matter of 10 minutes he will tell you whether what you want to happen will. He will always qualify his statements with the possibility of other options but ultimately I haven’t found him to be wrong yet. If he can’t do the loan he’ll tell you why and where you can try. He will help you with financial planning and ease your through the possibilities for your future with honesty and experience. Besides how can you not trust a guy with that has a fondness for spotted fluffy dogs, party cocker spaniels. Before you go to other brokers or websites where you have to fill out squares and tabs and likely spend money before you get an answer, why not just try the old fashioned way – pick up the phone and make a call. And as for rates – my clients have all said he got them the best.

But Rick is right, Terry can’t do everything. He’ll tell you when he can’t. Try Rick or Julie Baxter at the Loan Source if you need a mortgage banker. Try not to worry and take things more slowly.What ever you do, don’t default, plan. Get a financial analysis of your future. Decide whether you can stay comfortable in the home you live in. If not make plans to downsize and get your profit at the other end – a good home that’s going to appreciate not a home that is in a stagnant market. Walk away intact with cash in your pocket and start over without ruining your credit. Don’t get on the titanic at all. I plan on looking at that big double hump of loan failures in another way. I took on a mascot with a double hump. He’s going to take you slowly and surely to one place, the Oasis. Give us a call, your agent. We’re free, we’re conscientious and we’re reliable.

Friday, August 27, 2010

The Oak Story Continues

So the amusing speculation about why oaks explode when there in no rain or lightning still remains a mystery.  So many things in life are.  I am positive that the change of our beautiful 85 degree weather to 105 over night had something very much to do with it.
Laila Zaccaraiah, my agent at Allstate, mentioned that I was the second call that day regarding an exploding oak.  I had even seen an old oak fall on a barn in hot weather before.

Heat causes things to expand and if the liquid sap in the tree expanded more rapidly then the dry crust of the tree could handle then maybe it was too much for the oak and the tree had to give somewhere.  Down goes the branch on Gustavo's car.

So feet back down to reality.   Who is going to pay for his car?  I remember hitting a deer once when I was driving in the back country between Paso Robles and San Simeon to the horse farm owned by Mrs. William Randolph Hearst.  Boom.  No way around it.  The car insurance company paid 100%, no deductible out of my posket.  It was an "act of God" they said.  I think they took the deer fur off the bumper.  It wasn't my fault.

Regarding my homeowners policy: au contraire.  If we had maintained the tree properly which we did by removing excess dead wood from the frame and kept the oak healthy, then it wasn't our fault.  No liability, no payment.  If we neglected the tree and it was sickly, then it was out fault and the insurance company would pay for it.  Problem was then we look like neglectful people.  All that means is a recipe for the insurance company to raise our rates.  Catch 22.  Still no way to fairly get Gustavo's car fixed.

I asked Gustavo to call his car insurance company.  Hopefully they will shed some light on the situation and help out.  Meanwhil I'm feeling bad about his car and a $3126 bill.

My father used to say.  Don't bother paying insurance.  Take every penny that you spend on insurance: that's about 8-10% of my income and put it in investments.  You'll have a lot more money. I wonder if he was right.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

The Exploding Oak

While I was working at my desk yesterday signing a new listing, the giant oak outside my window exploded.  There was a loud sound that you can imagine is the one written in the balloon over the cartoon guy that gets smacked on the head.  "Crack"  A hundred times louder.  I ran outside to find that a giant limb from the oak tree that oversees this place had fallen on the red van owned by the guys here putting in the garden pavers.  No one was hurt but it was a mess.  My second thought was the oak.  It looked Ok, just a big jagged opening into the pulp where the branch popped off.  Now a huge leafy branch caving in the roof and windshield of Augusto's car.

Why do oaks explode?  So the easiest example to explain is why oaks explode in lightning storms.  Basically they usually don't.  Why?  A single bolt of lightning carries a peak current that's ten thousand times the energy of a light bulb.  In a storm when the oak is wet they don't explode.  The water acts as a great conductor and the lighting might look pretty dramatic as it runs down the tree but it doesn't explode.  Now, if the oak is dry and the lightning strikes through the bark  and hits the water filled sap line, and runs down from the inside out and explodes the tree from the inside out.  Cool.  I knew a surfer once that was hit by lightning (twice) and was just fine.  He was also bitten by a Great White and did fine but I'm heading too far into the karma zone.   Back to the oak.

The bark of the oak is thicker than most other trees.  It generally takes much longer for anything to get through it including water.  That means that when lightning actually gets to the heart of the oak, the tree being dryer on the outside and wetter on the inside really looks dramatic when it explodes.

So in our case here it's summer and there's no lightning!  Yesterday was one of the hottest days of the year.  A friend of mine called in the afternoon to say their rabbit had collapsed.  I walked downtown and people were lying everywhere under the big trees at the library and the post office reading books or just not moving.  I took the butter out of the refrigerator to make a pie and within 20 minutes I coudn't get it all out of the paper.

So I have been trying to figure this out.  There are no shortage of blog spots that agree that on really hot days oak tree limbs fall.  I have seen a giant limb, almost one third of the tree, go down in September and take out a corner of a barn.  One answer I read was when its really hot the tree pulls back its liquids to the core depriving outgoing limbs from getting water.  The rapid drying out fractures the wood in weaker limbs.  Dead limbs don't go because they are already used to not getting water.  If the weather is hot for a long time and the temperature goes up slowly, the pull back affect is not as dramatic and the limb just dies.

So why that limb.  There are about 50 others like it that wouldn't have hit the car.  This is where my explanation comes in.  There have been workers here for a month.  Usually we don't have anyone out here.  One car maybe none a day.  Now there are at least 6 or seven cars driving around the oak several times a day.  I kind of like the electricity idea from the inside out.  There have been strange currents around here lately.  They are running heavy equipment.  The ground has been completely torn up albeit along way from the tree getting this big construction project completed.  The electricity (OK its knob and tube around here)  has been causing mini black outs and driving me crazy trying to work on the computer.  The oak is sick of it.  He wants these folks done.



I mentioned this to the contractor who gave me a really funny look.  Then he added.  My guys saw the whole thing happen.  The limb gave way missing Jeannine's car by inches.  She was here cleaning up things in the house.  It actually bounced backwards and upwards to land on the top of Augusto's car.  Nice.  Thanks Oak.

So I called my trusty insurance agent Laila Zaccaraiah at Allstate.  We've been with them for years.  "It's an act of God," I say.  "We shouldn't have any deductible!"  "You've been our faithful agent for years. We've never had a claim."  She's calling the adjuster.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

California Dreaming of the Old Days

The other day I caught a clip from a movie shot in the 50's in technicolor. It had hauntingly beautiful clips of the California I knew growing up.  Images of waving fields of yellow mustard, trees heavy with luscious apricots, crashing waves on a pristine rocky Monterey Bay coastline and  people strolling down tree lined streets. What struck me was the fact that California is changing so rapidly and those calming images are disappearing.  Here in Silicon Valley we are becoming a metropolis of criss crossed highways and row housing. 

I grew up and was raised in a little town called Los Gatos, the cats.  The bobcat statues that were carved in the towns name still stand near the first off ramp  coming from the coast.  My late friend Kevin, another long time resident, called me one day to remark on a comment in our town paper, "Los Gatos is the town to see and be seen."  He too remembered the apricot orchards off Kennedy Road and fields of green and gold.  It struck him as funny how the focus here had changed.  Bentleys and beautiful people in running spandex and "chi chi" restaurants like 'Nicks on Main' are the town, not long stretches of open fields.   I have moved back to the family historical home after a long "walk about" the world.  Here in this home of my childhood I can feel the time that has gone by.   The house was the spot that they stopped the horses and watered them before they drove them up to the Novitiate.  In the last couple days I have seen a coopers hawk, an opossum, racoons, deer  and woodpeckers right outside my front door and yet I can walk to the town library and local coffee shop in about 5 minutes.  If the giant old oak that oversees the 3/4  acre could talk.

Los Gatos, once a destination spot for vacationing San Francisco folks, has the most amazing variety of old and graceful architecture.  A stroll through the neighborhood near Pennsylvania Ave will attest to that.  Next to a giant Craftsman with stained glass windows you might see a home that  could be called art deco.  Oddly enough it's  Netflix, a company that represents the present society, that supports the blend between plans for a library and the historical business buildings of East Main St. 

My father found this town after surviving two world wars and crossing America three times with two fighting toddlers in the back seat.  Its amazing to think that a man who spoke five languages stumbled on and stayed in this spot.   His  high school friend Czezlaw Miloscz, '84 poetry Nobel laureate remarked on this fact in his last book.  It will be nice to someday give the family home a face lift and help it to hold down some of the history of this town.  I don't want to imagine the day that the oak dies and with it the many animals that seem to find their way to this grandfathered property.

As a realtor I want to pass on the appreciation of the fine things we have around us.  No one should forget how fortunate we are to live in this valley.   I want to  teach those who come here to find a way to tend to this garden with the same respect for nature.  No matter what the news brings regarding economy and worry I have been fortunate to experience this place.  No matter what happens to me I have lived a life of which most people only dream.  It has been a time of prosperity and a haven of peace.  It has been the fullfillment of the american dream, the chance to live in a home that is safe in a land that is free.